Thursday, November 29, 2012

The Fiscal Cliff: To Jump Or Not?


As 2012 draws to a close, the unpleasant issue of the fiscal cliff rears its head at the newly reelected President Obama. The basic premise of the fiscal cliff is that on the end of this year the Bush administration’s, and other, tax cuts will end while spending decreases will go into effect if the Obama administration does not reinstate the programs or stop the planned decreases. This results in the government going over the fiscal cliff and higher taxes in the coming years, however it also reduces spending and public debt growth. The alternative choice is to avoid the fiscal cliff and instead renew the tax cuts and cancel planned spending decreases, which results in lower taxes and stress on the economy, but larger debt growth and more spending.
In short I think the United States Government should avoid the fiscal cliff. First and foremost we are just beginning the road to recovery from a large recession and according to The Bureau of Labor Statistics the current unemployment rates are among the lowest since the beginning of the recession. Stress placed onto our weakened economy could result in it failing to climb out of its pit and a recurrence of the recession that we have worked to get out of for the past few years. Additionally,  the Congressional Budget Office states that if the status quo is kept we will see a greater long term increase in income compared to if the government goes off the fiscal cliff. However, this increase comes at the cost of our debt, which will rocket upwards over the course of time.
A better solution to the problem would lie in not going over the fiscal cliff yet, but instead remaining with the current programs long enough to see the economy strengthen and stabilize, yet not long enough to rack up a massive amount of debt. Once the economy stabilizes solutions can be sought to the problem of public debt, be it committing to another fiscal cliff style plan or something altogether different.

1 comment:

  1. This is a very insigtful article. The fiscal cliff is probably the hottest topic on wallstreet and the different stock markets around the world. Reason being that investors don't like uncertainty. Why do I bring up the financial markets? Because the market is what drives our economy. For the past few weeks there have been multiple waves of sell offs and buying sprees by investors mainly based on the different news and comments that get published based on the fiscal cliff talks in congress. Our market being the biggest in the world directly effects the markets in Europe and Asia. Falling off the edge of this fiscal cliff would mean a global disaster. When the economy crashes it means product and housing prices will go up, simultoniously hurting those who are also now paying more taxes. We should make sure that we come to agreements and lay out the new plans for the post Bush tax era. We could emphasize this priority and motivate the congress to solve the issue faster by educating the public regarding the risks of missing the deadline. Postponing the deadline might be a good idea and will buy Congress more time.

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